Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,094,400$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.68 \times 10^{5} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(40.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{10,258,100.9}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 158.3)}}\) (asimptote \(10,258,100.9\))
Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $163,463$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(3.34 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{145,340.6}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 58.6)}}\) (asimptote \(145,340.6\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $3,260,182$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $485,836$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(1.63 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(28.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{622,884.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 117.1)}}\) (asimptote \(622,884.1\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $53,003$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.59 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58,916.3}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 97.9)}}\) (asimptote \(58,916.3\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,673$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $75,394$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.16 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{123,092.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 139.5)}}\) (asimptote \(123,092.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,664$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(47.8 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{7,746.0}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 200.3)}}\) (asimptote \(7,746.0\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $24,220$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $122,053$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.7 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,800.4}{1 + 10^{-0.026 (t - 59.3)}}\) (asimptote \(112,800.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,034$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.24 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(62.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{8,844.5}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 54.2)}}\) (asimptote \(8,844.5\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $4,969$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $47,872$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(890 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{56,946.9}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 116.2)}}\) (asimptote \(56,946.9\))
Start date 2020-03-26 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,506$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(33.3 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{3,569.7}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 144.3)}}\) (asimptote \(3,569.7\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $39,717$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $56,987$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(772 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{75,638.6}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 120.6)}}\) (asimptote \(75,638.6\))
Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $2,222$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(45.4 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(22.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,608.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 102.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,608.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $9,176$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $80,499$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(2.51 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(29.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{242,288.5}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 173.2)}}\) (asimptote \(242,288.5\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,328$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(147 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,071.2}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 126.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,071.2\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,261$ on 2020-08-10
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $20,872$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(315 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(22.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{43,362.2}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 140.9)}}\) (asimptote \(43,362.2\))
Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $563$ on 2020-08-10
Best fit exponential: \(8.13 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{797.9}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 117.7)}}\) (asimptote \(797.9\))
Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $10,589$ on 2020-08-10
